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Wait and see: opinions

January 24, 2009

According to Father Luigi,

Dire que la guerre est finie ou dire que le long calvaire des populations du Kivu est terminé, c’est peut etre trés prematuré. Personne fait rien pour rien. Si les Rwandais ont accepté d’attaquer Nkunda conjointement avec les FARDC, ne l’on pas fait gratuitement. Les propos de Sarkozy c’est le dur prix que la RDC doit payer.

And according to Colette Braeckman (who is more pessimistic),

Les jours à venir verront sans doute un nouveau triomphe de la realpolitik, la morale n’y trouvera pas son compte, ni la lutte contre l’impunité. Mais si la paix enfin se dessine, fragile et minée par les compromis et les compromissions, ces scrupules seront sans doute vite effacés…

There are four thousand Rwandan soldiers in North Kivu according to OCHA , six thousand according to MISNA. FARDC forces are starting their advance .

Kinshasa has probably taken this step under big international pressure. But it is also a bet. If it works out, the war will be over. However, many Congolese consider that the price is too high, even if it works out.  If this is the only solution to pacify North Kivu, I wonder if other provinces with a history of secessionist aspirations (i.e Katanga) could see this scenario as a window of opportunity.


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